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In this post, we take a look at the previous Bitcoin hype and bust cycles and how the current cycle is different from the previous ones. One important distinction is that the duration of bearishness and the capital wipeout is much higher in the 2018 downmarket.
The 2014 price downturn was predominantly because of the infamous Mt. Gox heist, which resulted in a loss of over 740k Bitcoins, roughly 6% of the supply at that time. The market went into a prolonged downturn for about 6 months before the prices started to show a meaningful reversion. Moreover, a majority of the value that was destroyed during the 2014 bear market belonged to Bitcoin, due to its >90% dominance. During the Mt. Gox hack, the Bitcoin market was still a nascent one with much lower trading volumes and infrastructure support as compared to today.
Today’s bear market is a result of a non-singular event and involves a far larger number of participants from different constituencies - Wall Street, VCs, and regulators,in addition to the average Joe retail crypto investor. Therefore, the 2018 downturn is far more pronounced in its impact when compared to any of the previous cycles due to its sheer size and scope, and also in terms of the multitude of cryptocurrencies that have lost value. To be fair, the market was also getting a bit ahead of itself, especially after the ICO boom of 2017-18.
Crypto markets are doing fairly well today, with almost all currencies trading in the green. Only ETC is down 1.48% from yesterday, most likey due to profit booking following yesterday's massive gains. BTC, at $6,483, gained 1.65% while ETH, at $301.37 recovered another 4.08%, almost fully recovering from it's ~$260 value that it hit earlier this week. Tezos was the best performing currency, clocking in gains of 17.16%.
Data sourced from OnChainFX.com.
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